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Technical Deep-Dives

Research notes, methodology insights, and lessons learned building an electricity price forecasting system.

March 25, 2026 · 14 min read

When Our Model Met a Crisis: Electricity Price Forecasting During the March 2026 Oil Shock

Prices hit 250 EUR/MWh. Our production model predicted 84. Here's exactly why each generation of our architecture failed differently — and what it tells us about supervised learning in energy markets.

machine-learning electricity-prices forecasting model-failure distribution-shift energy-markets

March 23, 2026 · 28 min read

I Tried to Predict Electricity Prices 7 Days Ahead. Here's How Close I Got.

121 experiments, 10 major versions, one architectural paradigm shift. Using only public data, I built a system that predicts Spanish electricity prices with 15.73 EUR/MWh error on a volatile 150-day window — and discovered that sometimes the best fix is to change what you're predicting entirely.

machine-learning electricity-prices forecasting gradient-boosting lstm neural-networks