Price Drivers
The Price Drivers page is a standalone top-level section that explains why electricity prices behave the way they do. It combines commodity markets, weather impacts, generation mix shifts, and demand/supply balance into a single analytical view.
Page Sections
Price Trend
Electricity price trend overview providing 7-day context for recent price movements.
Commodity Drivers
Three cards showing current prices and 7-day trends for:
| Commodity | Unit | Role |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Natural Gas | EUR/MWh | Primary marginal cost input — gas-fired plants set prices ~60% of hours |
| Brent Crude Oil | USD/bbl | Leading indicator via oil → gas price transmission (1–3 day lag) |
| EU ETS Carbon | EUR/tCO2 | Emission cost component added to fossil fuel generation costs |
Auto-generated insight badges highlight significant moves (e.g., gas surging +12%, oil up 18%). An explanatory footer describes the oil → gas → electricity transmission mechanism.
Weather & Renewable Drivers
Weather impact badges (wind, solar, temperature, precipitation) plus a generation chart showing wind and solar output over 7 days. Actual data appears with solid fills; forecast data uses lighter opacity with a “Now” divider separating the two.
Supply Mix Shifts
Daily generation mix summary showing 7-day technology shifts. Tracks how the share of each generation technology changes day-to-day, identifying trends toward renewable-heavy (lower prices) or thermal-heavy (higher prices) periods.
Today’s Detailed Generation
Stacked area chart showing hourly generation by 9 technology sources:
| Technology | Color | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Wind | Green | Onshore and offshore wind |
| Solar PV | Yellow | Photovoltaic solar |
| Solar Thermal | Orange | Concentrated solar |
| Hydro | Blue | Hydroelectric |
| Nuclear | Purple | Nuclear baseload |
| Combined Cycle | Gray | Gas turbines (marginal setter) |
| Coal | Dark gray | Coal generation |
| Cogeneration | Brown | Industrial cogeneration |
| Other Renewable | Light green | Biomass, waste, small hydro |
The demand line overlays the generation stack, showing how supply meets demand throughout the day.
Demand & Supply Balance
Residual demand chart (total demand minus wind and solar generation) with a 25 GW reference threshold marking the “gas price-setting zone.” Cross-cutting insights combine commodity prices with renewable output to explain current price dynamics.
Cross-Border Flows
7-day cross-border electricity flow analysis with:
- France: Largest interconnection (~2,800 MW capacity)
- Portugal: MIBEL integrated market
- Morocco: Submarine cable
Positive values indicate imports into Spain; negative values indicate exports. Net imports add to supply, putting downward pressure on prices.
Why Price Drivers Matter
The Spanish electricity market uses marginal pricing — the most expensive generator needed to meet demand sets the price for all. Understanding the drivers helps interpret forecast outputs:
- High gas + low wind → Gas sets the marginal price → expensive electricity
- High renewables + low demand → Renewable surplus can push prices to zero or negative
- Oil price spikes → Transmit to gas prices within 1–3 days → higher electricity prices
- French nuclear outages → Reduced imports increase Spanish marginal cost