Market Price
The Market Price page (/market-price) is the single-country detailed view. It shows the full context for one market at a time: the price forecast alongside generation mix, weather, cross-border flows, commodity prices, and a live news panel.
Use the country selector in the sidebar to switch between Spain (ES), Portugal (PT), France (FR), and Germany (DE). Every panel on the page updates to that country’s data.
Period and chart controls
Three controls at the top of the page apply to all charts simultaneously:
| Control | Options | Effect |
|---|---|---|
| Period | 3D / 7D / MONTH / YEAR | Time window shown across all charts |
| Forecast range | Day-Ahead / Strategic | Which forecast product to overlay on the price chart |
| Chart type | Line / Bars / BoxPlot / Calendar | Visual format of the price panel |
Period drives the x-axis across all charts on the page. 3D and 7D show hourly or 15-min resolution; MONTH and YEAR switch to daily aggregates.
Chart type changes only the Market Price Panel:
- Line — continuous price line with confidence band shading
- Bars — per-period bar chart (good for comparing hour-to-hour)
- BoxPlot — daily distribution boxes (useful at MONTH/YEAR period)
- Calendar — heatmap calendar view showing price by day-of-week and hour
Forecast Status Bar
The ForecastStatusBar at the top shows three status indicators:
- OMIE D+1 publication — whether the OMIE day-ahead auction result has been published yet
- D+1 Forecast — timestamp of the last day-ahead prediction run with a live countdown to the next
- Strategic D+2–D+7 — timestamp of the last strategic prediction run with a live countdown
Market Price Panel
The central chart showing historical day-ahead settlement prices (actuals) and the EPF ML forecast. Format follows the Chart type selector.
The forecast overlay shows:
- Point forecast — the p50 prediction
- Inner band (50%) — ±½ MAE confidence band based on the backtest error for this horizon
- Outer band (90%) — ±1× MAE confidence band
For the Day-Ahead forecast range, the D+1 forecast uses day-ahead-specific MAE. For Strategic, D+2–D+7 uses strategic MAE, which is larger at longer horizons.
Approach selector
Below the chart, an Approach filter switches the model source:
| Approach | Description |
|---|---|
| hybrid15 | Recommended. Combines 3+ years of expanded history with genuine 15-min data. |
| pure15 | Genuine 15-min data only. Shorter training window (OMIE 15-min adopted Oct 2025). |
| expanded | Hourly data replicated to 15-min. Longest training window but structural limitations. |
All three approaches produce 15-minute resolution forecasts.
Hourly Generation Chart
Stacked area chart showing electricity generation by technology source for the selected country and period:
- Wind (green) — onshore and offshore wind
- Solar PV (yellow) — photovoltaic solar
- Solar Thermal (orange) — concentrated solar (ES)
- Hydro (blue) — hydroelectric
- Nuclear (purple) — nuclear baseload
- Gas / Combined Cycle (grey) — gas-fired turbines (the marginal setter ~60% of hours)
- Coal (dark grey)
- Cogeneration / Other (brown/light green)
A demand line overlays the stacked generation, showing how supply meets demand throughout the day. The chart splits at “Now” — to the left are actuals from ENTSO-E (PT/FR/DE) or REE (ES); to the right are generation forecasts.
Weather Chart
Temperature, wind speed, and precipitation for the country’s population-weighted weather stations (sourced from Open-Meteo). The split at “Now” shows observed data on the left and forecast data on the right, with lighter fill opacity in the forecast region.
Weather is one of the strongest price drivers: high wind and solar output typically suppress prices; heatwaves or cold snaps raise demand and push prices up.
Interconnection Driver Panel
Cross-border electricity flows for the selected period, with one line per interconnection:
| Country | Capacity (approx.) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| France | ~2,800 MW | Largest interconnection |
| Portugal | Integrated (MIBEL) | Tightly coupled market |
| Morocco | ~900 MW | Submarine cable (ES only) |
Positive values indicate imports into the selected country (adds supply, puts downward pressure on prices). Negative values indicate exports (reduces domestic supply). Data sourced from ENTSO-E physical flow reports.
Right column panels
Commodity Cards
Three cards showing current prices and trend sparklines for the global commodity inputs that feed into electricity costs:
| Commodity | Unit | Price channel |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Natural Gas | EUR/MWh | Primary marginal cost driver; gas-fired plants set price ~60% of hours |
| Brent Crude Oil | USD/bbl | Leading indicator via oil → gas price transmission (1–3 day lag) |
| EU ETS Carbon | EUR/tCO₂ | Emission cost added to all fossil-fuel generation |
Each card shows a 7–30 day trend sparkline. Auto-generated insight badges highlight significant moves (e.g. “gas surging +12%”, “oil up 18%”).
News Feed
A compact panel showing the 30 most recent energy market headlines relevant to the selected country plus global supply shocks. Each headline shows a sentiment dot (green/grey/red), source name, relative timestamp, and the clipped headline text.
Click any headline to open the full article. Click “View all →” to open the full News page with filtering controls.
Market Signals Summary
Real-time badges summarizing current market conditions at a glance:
- Gas price level — current TTF vs. historical distribution
- Renewable share — today’s wind + solar as % of total generation
- Tomorrow vs. today — expected price delta for the next day
- Spike risk — probability of an hourly price spike above threshold
- Spot price trend — direction of recent settlement price movement
These badges are recalculated on each data refresh (every 15 minutes for underlying data).
Related pages
- Multi-Country — cross-market view overlaying all four countries
- Trading Tools — dispatch optimization and storage arbitrage built on these forecasts
- News — full news feed with filtering
- System — model accuracy, pipeline status, and data quality