Hourly Approach
Overview
The hourly approach is the default forecasting mode, producing 24 price predictions per day at 60-minute resolution. It aligns with the traditional OMIE hourly market clearing and serves as the foundation upon which the 15-minute approaches are built.
How It Works
- Data resolution: All input data (prices, demand, generation, weather) at hourly granularity
- Feature engineering: Hourly lags, 24h/168h rolling statistics, cyclical hour/day/month encoding
- Direct prediction: Separate model per horizon group, each predicting hourly target prices
- Output: 24 hourly prices for D+1 (day-ahead) or 144 hourly prices for D+2–D+7 (strategic)
Horizon Groups
The hourly approach uses two sets of horizon groups depending on the run mode:
Day-ahead (D+1):
| Group | Target Hours | Description |
|---|---|---|
| DA1 | D+1 00:00–11:00 | Morning block (12 hours) |
| DA2 | D+1 12:00–23:00 | Afternoon/evening block (12 hours) |
Strategic (D+2–D+7):
| Group | Target Period | Description |
|---|---|---|
| S1 | D+2 full day | 24 hours |
| S2 | D+3 full day | 24 hours |
| S3 | D+4 full day | 24 hours |
| S4 | D+5 full day | 24 hours |
| S5 | D+6–D+7 | 48 hours combined |
Feature Set
The hourly approach uses the full feature inventory:
- Temporal:
hour_sin/cos,dow_sin/cos,month_sin/cos,is_weekend,is_holiday - Price dynamics: Lags at 1h, 2h, 3h, 24h, 48h, 168h; rolling means and standard deviations
- Demand/generation: Current demand, renewable/thermal shares, residual demand
- Weather: Temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, degree days, interaction terms
- Commodities: Gas price, carbon price, marginal cost proxy, spark spread
- D+1 prices: (Strategic mode only) Published day-ahead price statistics
Temporal Encoding
Hours, days, and months are encoded using sin/cos pairs to preserve cyclical continuity:
hour_sin = sin(2π × hour / 24)hour_cos = cos(2π × hour / 24)This ensures that hour 23 and hour 0 are treated as adjacent (which they are) rather than distant (which ordinal encoding would imply).
When to Use
The hourly approach is appropriate when:
- The target market clears at hourly resolution (traditional OMIE)
- Maximum feature coverage is needed (all indicators available hourly)
- Simplicity and interpretability are priorities
- Historical comparison with pre-MTU15 forecasts is required
Relationship to 15-Minute Approaches
The hourly approach provides the baseline that the three 15-minute approaches extend:
- Expanded: Takes hourly predictions and replicates each to 4 quarter-hourly slots
- Pure15: Rebuilds the entire pipeline at 15-minute resolution
- Hybrid15: Combines hourly-expanded features with native 15-minute data
See the individual approach pages for details on each strategy.