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EPF Docs

Quick Start

Dashboard Overview

The EPF dashboard at epforecast.com provides real-time access to electricity price forecasts for the Spanish day-ahead market.

What You’ll See

  1. Current Price — Live electricity price with 24h min/avg/max
  2. Tomorrow Outlook — Summary of D+1 forecast with cheapest hours
  3. Day-Ahead Forecast — 24-hour bar chart for tomorrow
  4. Price Heatmap — 7-day hourly price grid with color coding
  5. Strategic Outlook — D+2 to D+7 daily summary
  6. Forecast Chart — Multi-model overlay with confidence bands
  7. Price Drivers — Wind, solar, and demand context

Forecast Schedule

EPF delivers two forecast products daily, aligned with the OMIE market timeline:

ProductAvailableHorizonUse Case
D+1 Day-Ahead~10:00 UTCNext 24 hoursBidding strategy, next-day planning
D+2–D+7 Strategic~15:00 UTCNext 6 daysPortfolio optimization, maintenance scheduling

Both products include confidence intervals (50% and 90% bands) so you can assess forecast uncertainty at each horizon.

Reading the Forecast

Resolution

Forecasts are available at 15-minute resolution (96 quarter-hours per day), aligned with the EU MTU15 standard that OMIE adopted in October 2025.

Confidence Bands

Each point forecast comes with two confidence bands:

  • Inner band (50%) — Half of historical actuals fell within this range
  • Outer band (90%) — Nine out of ten historical actuals fell within this range

Wider bands indicate higher uncertainty — typically at longer horizons (D+5 to D+7) or during volatile market periods.

Multi-Model View

The Evaluation page lets you compare individual model predictions against actual prices. The day-ahead product uses the LSTM-XGBoost hybrid (v10.1); the strategic product uses the three-model gradient boosting ensemble (HistGBT, LightGBM, XGBoost). When models agree, confidence is higher; divergence signals uncertain conditions.

API Access

Next Steps